Infographic Reveals Bonkers First-Half 2015 Bernal Heights Microhood Real Estate Trends

Bernal2015H1microhoods

Love it or hate it, San Francisco’s red-hot real estate market is a reality, and in the spirit of looking reality square in the eye, let us now take a moment to consider the new map of Bernal Heights Microhood Sales Trends for the first half of 2015, as compiled by Bernal neighbors and realtors Michael Minson and Danielle Lazier.

Just as they did for 2014 (and once again with Bernalwood’s permission) Neighbors Michael and Danielle tracked recent home sales data according to the boundaries of the official Bernal Heights microhoods map.

The basic story here should be morbidly familiar to all of us by now: Lots of people want houses in Bernal, but there are precious few houses here to buy. The result is a home sales price chart that keeps going up and to the right at double black-diamond angles.

Here’s another infographic to digest:

BernalH12015datapoints

Finally, here are a few extra-credit observations from the Bernalwood News Team:

  • The high. $1356 average price-per-square-foot in Precitaville may be skewed by the record-setting $3.15M sale price of 3407 Folsom, aka The Helipad. Bernalwood has learned that the buyers are also current Bernal residents, and that they may also be inclined to retain the lady-shark mural. (Personally, I hope they do.)
  • Frustrated neighbors report that the Abandoned Million Dollar Party Shack on Mullen is still abandoned, with problems of vagrancy and graffiti continuing. Sad.
  • Another silly episode of Mission Dollar Listing: San Francisco aired last night, and if you want to catch up on all the fake drama about the fake sale of that real home at 535 Gates in fake-crappy Bernal Heights, we heartily recommend this boozy recap of last night’s misadventures. Preview: It seems that Andrew, the incompetent realtor trying to sell the Bernal property, may be sort of fake gay. Or, at least, hetero-curious. How awkward.

IMAGES: Courtesy of Michael Minson and Danielle Lazier

Finally!! Reality TV Show Tells America That Bernal Heights Is a “Crap Neighborhood”

craphousepunk

To those who fret that Bernal Heights has become too safe, too comfortable, too nice, too fetishized, and too bourgeois, we bring some fantastic news: According to a popular reality TV show, Bernal Heights is too ghetto!

Woo-hoooooooo!

Bravo network’s Million Dollar Listing San Francisco is a reality TV series about slick realtors hustling to sell high-value homes. It’s a Jersey Shore-style drama, only with less tawdry beach sex and more granite countertops. About a million Americans watch the show each week, and on Wednesday night’s episode, one of the more oily realtors was having a tough time selling a home in a “crap neighborhood” called Bernal Heights.

Our Bernalphile friends at CurbedSF explain what happened next:

This week’s episode of Million Dollar Listing San Francisco was the most entertaining of the series so far, but possibly only because it was so completely, utterly filled with plot lines that bear no resemblance to the real world. Unlike last week’s show, there were plenty of new houses to gawk at this time around, and the realtors themselves seemed to fade into the background a bit. The best story line of all was one in which Bernal Heights—the same Bernal named the hottest neighborhood in the whole country by Redfin last year, the Bernal where houses are snatched from the market for hundreds of thousands over asking in mere days—was made out to be a quasi-ghetto where buyers were so turned off that they didn’t even bother to show up for open houses.

The Bernal plot line kicks off when Andrew gets a listing at 535 Gates Street. It’s a classic Bernal flip, and developer Anders Kang has spent $500,000 renovating the property. He wants $2 million, but Andrew talks him down to listing for $1.8 million. “This is not Pacific Heights,” he explains. “This is Bernal Heights, meaning this is going to be a challenge.” Is he living in the 1990s or something? His only challenge should be how to fit prospective buyers into the place for an open house.

Andrew sets up several private showings, only to be blown off by nearly all of the buyers. “Hey Andrew, couldn’t find a buyer for Bernal Heights,” one agent texts. “Let me know if you have something in Noe Valley.” We concede that there are some less-than-ideal things about the property’s location. It sits on the south side of Bernal, which is less sought after than the north side. Neighbors have chickens and curtains for windows, and an adjacent house is covered in peeling paint. “We’ve got a great house in a crap neighborhood,” Andrew explains to a colleague. “What have you seen there?” she asks. “A couple of drug deals?” he answers flippantly. Enough already! This is Bernal! And the house is two blocks from the heart of Cortland Avenue and about a five-minute walk to Holly Park.

There’s a whole bit where Andrew realizes that maybe there are some local tech shuttle stops but cannot find any. Then, the segment wraps up with Justin appearing at Andrew’s open house to say that he couldn’t bring any of his tech buyers over because the listing is on the wrong side of Bernal. By this point, we were laughing so hard at the depiction of Bernal as a wasteland that we didn’t even catch whatever the drama between Andrew and Justin was.

Ohmigod!! Right??

And it gets even better: Some people on Twitter confirm that it sucks here!

Others say Bernal is just rough around the edges:

Some believe the fundamentals don’t make any sense:

While other are just plain cynical:

Still, all in all, this might well be the best thing to happen to Bernal’s street cred since that Bigfoot sighting in 2012.

It’s official: We’re rough. We’re edgy. We’re out of the way. Techies think we are squalid. This week, a million Americans learned that respectable, high-achieving people want nothing whatsoever to do with Bernal Heights. Which, of course, can only mean…

WE ARE FUCKING COOL AGAIN!

bernalsuccesskid2

PHOTO: Top, 535 Gates via SFMLS

Bernal Drag Queen Home Listing May Be World’s Funniest Real Estate Video

52Mirabel3

The latest data from the real estate data people tells us that San Francisco’s median home sale price is now $1.16 milliion, while the median home sale price increase in Bernal Heights has skyrocketed by a gasp-worthy 97% between 2011 and today. Oh my.

It’s kind of absurd, which makes the new property listing video for 52 Mirabel an apt document for our times. 52 Mirabel is listed by Bernal neighbors and realtors Danielle Lazier and Michael Minson, and it has an asking price of $1,998,000. Neighbors Danielle and Michael went all-in on the “local culture” angle by creating a super-fun video for the home that stars the fabulous Mercedez Munro and Katya Smirnoff-Skyy as your glamorous tour guides:

52Mirabel1

Like much great comedy, the listing for 52 Mirabel holds up well to repeated listening, with lots of highly memorable, highly quotable lines. Take, for example, this description of the amenities:

On the lower level we have two large bedrooms with a Jack and Jill bathroom!

Or Jack and Jack. Or Jill and Jill. Who are we to judge?

If there is a such a thing as a Real Estate Video Hall of Fame, this one seems like a shoe-in.

But darling, who are we to judge?

BONUS! Here is the blooper reel.

Housing Shortage Becomes Fodder for Twee Bernal Birdhouse Humor

birdhouseforrent

There comes a point in every Bay Area economic boom where housing is scarce and rents are through the roof when some jokester comments about renting out the garage, or the doghouse, or a tent in the yard for an absurd amount of money. (Although, turns out, the tent in the yard is real.)

Citizens of Bernalwood, we have reached that moment. Neighbor Robert shared this photo of a birdhouse he spotted on Precita.

For Rent!! LOLZ!! But wait… it’s a trend!

Neighbor Valerie spotted two more birdhouses on offer around Coleridge:

But here’s the thing: Market forces tell us that $3000 a month is actually a ridiculous amount of money to pay for a birdhouse, because Neighbor Robert also spotted a very innnnnnnnnteresting property listing in The Mission.

It’s an entire studio apartment, and it could be yours for just $2500:

2015-07-04 17.24.25

What a bargain!

PHOTOS: Robert Weiner

 

 

Median Price of a Bernal Home Jumps 57% Since 2013

5-15_bernal_Median_House-Prices_by-Neighborhood

According to the latest market report from Paragon Real Estate, the median price of a home in Bernal Heights now stands at $1.4 million. Our friends at CurbedSF wrote up the summary:

Although neighborhoods like Bayview, Bernal Heights, and Glen Park are considered to be among the more affordable in the city, they have all seen tremendous appreciation over the past two years. Back in April 2013, the median price for a Bayview house was just $447,000. It grew by 7.4 percent to hit $480,000 in 2014 and then soared 31.2 percent to its current $630,000. Bernal, of course, has been widely talked about as a hot neighborhood, and its prices reflect that reputation. In April 2013, you could get a median Bernal home for just $880,000. That number grew by 31.2 percent to $1.154 million in 2014 and has now grown another 19.6 percent to hit $1.38 million this year. Glen Park has seen similar trends, growing from $1.205 million in 2013 to $1.835 million now.

Bayview-Bernal-2013-2015

What’s the cause of the this dizzying price appreciation? Even a high school student can explain it to you: Mr. Supply and Mr. Demand aren’t moving in parallel, and they haven’t moved in parallel for a long time. There are a whole lot of people who want a place to live in San Francisco, but there are very few places available for them to buy. Curbed looks at the issue citywide:

As always, low inventory is part of the issue in San Francisco. New listings this spring barely topped 600 per month, compared with about 700 per month last year and 800 two years ago. And while 3,454 new-construction housing units were completed in 2014, the most in the past 20 years according to Paragon’s tally of Planning Department figures, it still isn’t enough in a city where the economy is booming and new residents are flooding into town.

Bernal seems to have had a particularly low number of listings of late. According to this March 2015 summary by realtor and neighbor Danielle Lazier, there were just 9 properties listed for sale in Bernal in March, which represented a 53% decrease from the year before. And when houses do come on the market in Bernal, they tend to sell with neck-straining quickness. Neighbor Danielle’s data says that in March, Bernal homes sold after an average of just 15 days on the market, or 50% faster than a year before.

mar15sfhinventory-2

CHARTS: Paragon Real Estate and SFHotlist

David Campos Introduces Proposal to Make Mission Housing Even More Expensive, Homeowners and Landlords Even More Wealthy

camposnimby

As you probably know, Bernal neighbor David Campos represents District 9 on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Yesterday, he introduced a proposed ordinance that would deliver a windfall to Mission District homeowners and provide new incentives for Mission District landlords to evict existing tenants.

Supervisor Campos calls his proposal a “Temporary Moratorium on Market Rate Development,” and he says it is intended to halt displacement and maintain diversity in the Mission. In reality, it will almost certainly do the opposite. The San Francisco Business Times broke the story about the Campos proposal:

Voters will be asked in November whether to halt market-rate housing construction in the Mission District if neighborhood activists have their way, the Business Times has learned.

Edwin Lindo of the San Francisco Latino Democratic Club said Monday that a coalition of affordable housing and progressive groups soon will submit a potential ballot measure to the city attorney that would delay market-rate housing projects in the Mission for up to 18 months.

They would then attempt to collect the roughly 9,400 signatures needed to qualify the measure for the ballot.

A draft of the ballot measure, obtained through a public records request by a neighborhood activist, showed that the moratorium would apply to projects larger than 20 units. The moratorium would apply to the entire neighborhood, not just the 24th Street area on the south side of the neighborhood considered a Latino cultural district, as had been previously floated by Supervisor David Campos.

“Our goal is not to stop all development. Our goal is to stop incredibly large development that focus exclusively on market-rate housing,” Lindo said. “We need a pause to ensure that if developers are going to build in our city they’re going to figure out a way to build affordable housing, even if that could be cutting into their 15 to 20 percent profit margins.”

Many economists, urban policy groups like SPUR, and policymakers like Mayor Ed Lee and Scott Wiener have all said this kind of strategy will exacerbate the neighborhood’s problems. With a shriveling pool public dollars available to build affordable housing, the city has looked toward more market-rate development to pay for housing for low-income residents through inclusionary laws and fees.

The SF Chronicle adds the measure “would implement a 45-day moratorium on planning approvals, demolitions and building permits for multifamily residential developments in a 1½-square-mile area. It could be extended for up to two years under state law.”

moratoriuarea

You don’t have to be an economist, or an urban policy wonk, or or a government policymaker to envision why this proposal from Supervisor Campos and progressive allies will put lots and lots of money in the pockets of existing Mission District property-owners. All you have to do is take a moment to consider this graph:

SF.HousingGap

The housing gap graph (which comes from this video) shows that San Francisco’s population has been growing steadily for several decades, but our supply of housing has failed to keep pace. The housing deficit has grown more extreme with each passing year, which has made housing more expensive for San Franciscans at all income levels, across the board. This effect is called supply and demand, and supply and demand is sort of like the law of gravity, in that even if you don’t much like it, you still can’t realistically hope escape it.

The local economy is booming and San Francisco’s population is growing rapidly, so the only real way to make housing more affordable for everyone is to increase the overall supply. That’s a slow and imperfect process, to be sure, but if your goal is to reduce displacement, stabilize prices, and create opportunities for all San Franciscans across the board, there’s really no viable alternative. Building more affordable housing is something we absolutely must do, but increasing the overall housing supply and increasing the amount of affordable housing is not an either/or proposition. Indeed, by law market-rate housing development actually provides substantial funding for the creation of more affordable housing.

Supervisor Campos’s moratorium offer no proposals to provide additional funding for affordable housing, nor does it propose a way to offset the affordable housing funds that will be lost by blocking the construction of market rate housing. And he has had nothing to say about accelerating construction of affordable housing projects that are already on the table, like the proposed building at Cesar Chavez and Shotwell that your Bernalwood editor is eager to look out upon.

Supervisor Campos and his NIMBY allies say the goal is to reduce evictions and displacement, but that doesn’t hold much water either. Their opposition to new housing development has been fierce — even when absolutely no one would be displaced by the construction, and even when projects contain a substantial number of affordable housing units. In March, for example, activists shouted down a proposal to build 291 units of market-rate housing with an additional 41 units reserved for middle-class buyers on the squalid site next to the 16th Street BART station that is today occupied by a chain drug store and a Burger King. Last month, many of the same activists disrupted a proposal to build 115 units of market-rate housing on the site of a semi-abandoned warehouse at 2675 Folsom near 23rd Street.

There is one surefire way to make housing in The Mission even more expensive: In a transit-rich location with two BART stations, several arterial MUNI lines, and excellent freeway access, where demand for housing already vastly exceeds supply, blocking the creation of new housing will only make existing housing even more precious. And that is what Supervisor Campos proposes to do.

So if the moratorium makes no logical sense and is unlikely to do much to address the housing affordability crisis, what purpose does it hope to serve? On the 48 Hills site, Bernal neighbor Tim Redmond described the scene yesterday as Campos announced his plan:

The existing zoning, under the Eastern Neighborhoods Plan, “has failed the Mission,” [Campos] said, pointing out that 8,000 Latino residents have been lost in the past decade. The population of the Mission was 52 percent Latino a decade ago; now it’s down to 40 percent.

That tribal logic may be the most candid explanation Campos has yet provided. The proposed moratorium mirrors Calle24’s effort to create a legally-protected Latino enclave along 24th Street, but it seeks to extend privileged incumbent status to an area that includes almost all of the Mission District. Progressive power brokers may have a weak understanding of housing economics, but they sure know how to rewrite the rules to protect their turf.

It may be true that San Francisco can’t really build its way out of the current housing crisis. But it’s definitely true that we can’t not-build our way out of it either. As San Francisco adds thousands of new residents each year, every delay and every postponed project means housing gets even more expensive as competition intensifies for whatever housing already exists.

That’s a miserable state of affairs longtime renters, new residents, and would-be home-buyers alike. But if you already own property in the Mission (or North Bernal, for that matter), the moratorium proposed by David Campos and progressive activists will have you laughing all the way to the bank.

PHOTO: David Campos, via 48 Hills

Dispute Unsettled, but Bocana Neighbor Departs Home After Huge Rent Increase

bocanarental3

abc7rentincrease

Yesterday was a sad moving day for Neighbor Deb Follingstad, who had to leave her home at 355 Bocana after receiving a now-infamous 315% rent increase notice from the landlord, Neighbor Nadia Llama.

ABC7 updated the story last Friday:

Follingstad’s home is understandably a mess since the May 5 deadline to move is just days away. She says leaving her home of 10 years hurts. She explained to 7 On Your Side, “It’s so painful and I’ve had to uproot my life in a month.”

A move out sale Follingstad held attracted a steady stream of people. Until she finds a place to live, she plans to couch surf and house sit. Beyond that, her future is murky.

“I don’t know anymore. I can’t afford to live here. A lot of my friends can’t afford to live here and it’s pretty heartbreaking the way the city’s changing,” Follingstad said.

The home is registered as a single family home and the landlord believes it’s not covered by rent control laws.

Tenants rights attorney Joe Tobener calls this eviction by rent increase. He said, “It’s an easy way for landlords to try to get tenants out, to increase the rent.”

Tobener plans to file a lawsuit on Follingstad’s behalf. He is charging landlord Nadia Llama with wrongful eviction.

PHOTO: Top, Telstar Logistics. Below, Neighbor Deb Follingstad via ABC7